Gartner, lub tuam txhab kev tshawb fawb thiab tshuaj xyuas cov ntaub ntawv thev naus laus zis, tau taw qhia tias xyoo 2024, automakers yuav txuas ntxiv ua haujlwm hnyav los tiv thaiv cov kev hloov pauv los ntawm software thiab hluav taws xob, yog li coj mus rau theem tshiab ntawm tsheb hluav taws xob.
Roj thiab hluav taws xob ua tiav cov nqi sib npaug sai dua li qhov xav tau
Cov nqi roj teeb poob qis, tab sis cov nqi hluav taws xob tsim hluav taws xob yuav poob sai dua ua tsaug rau cov thev naus laus zis tshiab xws li gigacasting.Raws li qhov tshwm sim, Gartner cia siab tias los ntawm 2027 lub tsheb hluav taws xob yuav raug nqi qis dua los tsim cov tsheb sib xyaw nrog lub cav vim muaj cov thev naus laus zis tsim tshiab thiab cov nqi roj teeb qis dua.
Hauv qhov no, Pedro Pacheco, tus lwm thawj ntawm kev tshawb fawb ntawm Gartner, tau hais tias: "Cov OEMs tshiab vam tias yuav rov txheeb xyuas qhov xwm txheej ntawm kev lag luam tsheb.Lawv nqa cov thev naus laus zis tshiab uas ua kom yooj yim cov nqi tsim khoom, xws li centralized automotive architecture lossis integrated die-casting, uas pab txo cov nqi tsim khoom.tus nqi thiab lub sijhawm sib dhos, cov neeg tsim tsheb ib txwm muaj tsis muaj kev xaiv tab sis los txais yuav cov kev tsim kho tshiab no kom muaj sia nyob. "
"Tesla thiab lwm tus tau saib kev tsim khoom hauv txoj kev tshiab," Pacheco hais rau Automotive News Europe ua ntej tshaj tawm tsab ntawv tshaj tawm.
Ib qho ntawm Tesla qhov kev tsim kho nto moo tshaj plaws yog "kev sib koom ua ke tuag-casting," uas yog hais txog kev tuag-casting feem ntau ntawm lub tsheb rau hauv ib thooj, tsis yog siv kaum ob ntawm cov ntsiab lus vuam thiab cov nplaum.Pacheco thiab lwm tus kws tshaj lij ntseeg tias Tesla yog tus thawj coj kev tsim kho tshiab hauv kev txiav cov nqi sib dhos thiab ua tus thawj coj hauv kev sib koom ua ke tuag-casting.
Kev txais yuav tsheb hluav taws xob tau qeeb hauv qee lub khw loj, suav nrog Tebchaws Meskas thiab Europe, yog li cov kws tshaj lij hais tias nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb rau cov neeg tsim khoom los qhia cov qauv nqi qis.
Pacheco tau taw qhia tias kev siv tshuab tuag-casting ib leeg tuaj yeem txo tus nqi ntawm lub cev dawb los ntawm "tsawg kawg" 20%, thiab lwm yam kev txo nqi tuaj yeem ua tiav los ntawm kev siv cov pob roj teeb ua cov qauv.
Cov nqi roj teeb tau poob rau ntau xyoo, nws hais tias, tab sis cov nqi sib dhos poob yog "qhov tseem ceeb tsis tau xav txog" uas yuav ua rau lub tsheb hluav taws xob ua rau tus nqi sib npaug nrog cov tsheb sib tsoo hauv lub cav sai dua li qhov xav tau.Nws hais ntxiv tias "Peb tab tom ncav cuag qhov kev taw qhia no ntxov dua li qhov xav tau," nws hais ntxiv.
Tshwj xeeb, lub platform EV siab yuav muab cov neeg tsim khoom muaj kev ywj pheej los tsim cov kab sib dhos kom haum rau lawv cov yam ntxwv, suav nrog cov fais fab me me thiab cov roj teeb hauv pem teb.
Hauv qhov sib piv, cov platforms haum rau "multi-powertrains" muaj qee qhov kev txwv, vim lawv xav tau qhov chaw kom haum rau lub tank roj lossis lub cav / kis.
Thaum qhov no txhais tau hais tias lub roj teeb hluav taws xob tsheb yuav ua tiav cov nqi sib npaug nrog cov tsheb sib xyaw nrog lub cav hluav taws xob ntau sai dua li qhov xav tau, nws tseem yuav ua rau tus nqi ntawm qee qhov kev kho rau roj teeb hluav taws xob tsheb.
Gartner kwv yees tias los ntawm 2027, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm kev kho cov xwm txheej loj uas cuam tshuam nrog lub cev hluav taws xob thiab roj teeb yuav nce 30%.Yog li ntawd, cov tswv yuav muaj kev xav ntau dua los xaiv los tsoo lub tsheb fais fab vim tias cov nqi kho yuav siab dua nws cov nqi khaws cia.Ib yam li ntawd, vim tias kev kho kev sib tsoo yog kim dua, cov nqi fajseeb khomob hauv tsheb kuj tseem yuav siab dua, txawm tias ua rau cov tuam txhab tuav pov hwm tsis kam them rau qee cov qauv.
Kev txo qis tus nqi ntawm kev tsim cov BEVs sai sai yuav tsum tsis txhob tuaj ntawm tus nqi ntawm kev saib xyuas ntau dua, vim qhov no tuaj yeem ua rau cov neeg siv khoom rov qab rau lub sijhawm ntev.Cov txheej txheem tshiab ntawm kev tsim cov tsheb hluav taws xob tag nrho yuav tsum tau siv nrog cov txheej txheem uas ua kom cov nqi tu qis.
Kev lag luam tsheb hluav taws xob nkag mus rau "kev muaj sia nyob ntawm qhov fittest" theem
Pacheco tau hais tias seb thiab thaum twg cov nqi txuag ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob txhais ua cov nqi muag qis yog nyob ntawm cov chaw tsim khoom, tab sis tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov tsheb hluav taws xob thiab cov tsheb hluav taws xob sab hauv yuav tsum ncav cuag parity los ntawm 2027. Tab sis nws kuj tau taw qhia tias cov tuam txhab tsheb hluav taws xob xws li BYD thiab Tesla muaj peev xwm txiav cov nqi vim tias lawv cov nqi qis txaus, yog li kev txiav nqi yuav tsis ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj ntau dhau rau lawv cov txiaj ntsig.
Tsis tas li ntawd, Gartner tseem kwv yees kev loj hlob muaj zog hauv kev muag tsheb hluav taws xob, nrog ib nrab ntawm cov tsheb muag hauv 2030 yog cov tsheb hluav taws xob ntshiab.Tab sis piv nrog "kub maj" ntawm cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob thaum ntxov, kev ua lag luam tau nkag mus rau lub sijhawm ntawm "kev muaj sia nyob ntawm qhov fittest".
Pacheco tau piav qhia txog 2024 raws li ib xyoos ntawm kev hloov pauv rau European hluav taws xob tsheb lag luam, nrog cov tuam txhab suav xws li BYD thiab MG tsim lawv tus kheej cov kev muag khoom thiab cov khoom lag luam hauv zos, thaum cov tuam txhab tsheb ib txwm muaj xws li Renault thiab Stellantis yuav tsim cov qauv nqi qis hauv zos.
"Ntau yam uas tshwm sim tam sim no yuav tsis cuam tshuam rau kev muag khoom, tab sis lawv tab tom npaj rau tej yam loj dua," nws hais.
Lub caij no, ntau lub tuam txhab hluav taws xob muaj txiaj ntsig zoo tau pib tawm tsam xyoo dhau los, suav nrog Polestar, uas tau pom nws cov nqi sib faib poob qis txij li nws cov npe, thiab Lucid, uas txiav nws qhov kev kwv yees ntau lawm 2024 los ntawm 90%.Lwm cov tuam txhab muaj teeb meem suav nrog Fisker, uas tab tom tham nrog Nissan, thiab Gaohe, uas nyuam qhuav raug kaw rau kev tsim khoom.
Pacheco tau hais tias, "Rov qab los, ntau qhov kev pib ua lag luam tau sib sau ua ke hauv lub tsheb hluav taws xob hauv kev ntseeg tias lawv tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig tau yooj yim - los ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb mus rau cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob them hluav taws xob - thiab qee qhov ntawm lawv tseem tso siab rau nyiaj txiag sab nraud, uas ua rau lawv tshwj xeeb. yooj yim rau kev lag luam.Qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev sib tw. "
Gartner kwv yees tias los ntawm 2027, 15% ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb hluav taws xob tau tsim nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo dhau los yuav tau txais lossis poob nyiaj poob haujlwm, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov uas vam khom rau sab nraud kev nqis peev ntxiv mus ntxiv.Txawm li cas los xij, "Qhov no tsis tau txhais hais tias kev lag luam tsheb hluav taws xob poob qis, nws tsuas yog nkag mus rau theem tshiab uas cov tuam txhab nrog cov khoom lag luam zoo tshaj plaws thiab cov kev pabcuam yuav yeej dua lwm lub tuam txhab."Pacheco hais.
Tsis tas li ntawd, nws kuj tau hais tias "ntau lub teb chaws tab tom txiav tawm kev txhawb siab ntsig txog tsheb hluav taws xob, ua rau kev ua lag luam nyuaj rau cov neeg uas twb muaj lawm."Txawm li cas los xij, "peb tab tom nkag mus rau theem tshiab uas cov tsheb fais fab tsis tuaj yeem muag ntawm kev txhawb siab / kev cog lus lossis cov txiaj ntsig ib puag ncig.BEVs yuav tsum yog ib qho khoom lag luam zoo tshaj plaws piv rau cov tsheb sib xyaw hauv lub cav. "
Thaum lub lag luam EV tau sib sau ua ke, kev xa khoom thiab kev nkag mus yuav txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv.Gartner kwv yees tias kev xa khoom tsheb fais fab yuav ncav cuag 18.4 lab units hauv 2024 thiab 20.6 lab units hauv 2025.
Post lub sij hawm: Mar-20-2024